金融危机
经济
预警系统
金融市场
金融体系
金融经济学
财务
凯恩斯经济学
计算机科学
电信
作者
Cees Diks,Cars Hommes,Juanxi Wang
出处
期刊:Empirical Economics
[Springer Science+Business Media]
日期:2018-08-10
卷期号:57 (4): 1201-1228
被引量:76
标识
DOI:10.1007/s00181-018-1527-3
摘要
Financial crises have repeatedly been coined as a potential application area in the recent literature on constructing early warning signals through identifying characteristics of critical slowing down on the basis of time series observations. To test this idea, we consider four historical financial crises—Black Monday 1987, the 1997 Asian Crisis, the 2000 Dot-com bubble burst, and the 2008 Financial Crisis—and investigate whether there is evidence for critical slowing down prior to these market collapses. We find statistical evidence for critical slowing down before Black Monday 1987, while the results are mixed or insignificant for the more recent financial crises.
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