System Dynamics Analysis of Circular Economy Strategies for Plastic Waste Management in Shopping Malls

Abstract Plastic waste management in shopping malls presents significant environmental and operational challenges due to high waste generation, heterogeneous waste streams, and complex logistics. Although recycling initiatives have expanded, many existing approaches inadequately address trade-offs between environmental performance and economic feasibility. This study applies an integrated System Dynamics Modeling framework to evaluate circular economy (CE) strategies for plastic waste management in a large urban shopping mall. Environmental impacts are quantified using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) across 18 ReCiPe midpoint categories, while economic and social performance is assessed using Social Return on Investment (SROI). Seven CE-oriented intervention scenarios are simulated, including behavioral interventions, tenant engagement, plastic waste compaction, shared-resource platforms, and an integrated strategy aligned with Extended Producer Responsibility. The results indicate that CE integration can increase recycling rates from 4.40% to 6.82% while reducing transportation demand by 36.36–58.94%. LCA results consistently identify transportation as the dominant contributor to environmental impacts, underscoring logistical efficiency as a critical leverage point. SROI values range from 22.40 to 87.96, driven primarily by avoided disposal and landfill costs. Overall, the findings demonstrate that combining material recovery with logistical optimization is essential for achieving balanced environmental and economic outcomes. This study provides decision-support insights for advancing circular plastic waste management in shopping malls and comparable commercial systems.