Contested strategies: China, the United States, and the Indo-Pacific security dilemma

The Sino-U.S. security dilemma is driven, in large part, by concerns in both countries about the regional strategies being pursued by the other. U.S. analysts worry about the implications of China’s regional economic diplomacy, while their Chinese counterparts construe U.S. strategy as a containment plot. Those dynamics are accelerating under the bold approaches being undertaken by Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative and Donald Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy. These perceptions are leading to responses which, in turn, make both sides feel even less secure. Nevertheless, the security dilemma is mitigated by perceptions that both countries are facing serious constraints in achieving their regional ambitions, and by the sense that neither country will be able to eliminate the key strategic advantages of the other. Policymakers thus need to be aware that there is a gap between how regional strategies are explained and how they are received, and avoid particularly severe provocations that could lead to further tensions and counter-moves. But mutual constraints mean that leaders do not need to be overly sensitive, and provides some hope that a modicum of strategic stability can be injected into the relationship.