Environmental regulations, technological innovation, and low carbon transformation: A case of the logistics industry in China

China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide. The logistics industry is the second largest source of CO2 emissions, second only to the manufacturing industry. Therefore, developing effective environmental regulations to achieve low-carbon transformation in the logistics industry is an urgent task for government managers. Based on the 2005–2021 panel data of China's 30 provinces, this article adopts a data-driven nonparametric additive model to investigate the role of environmental regulations in CO2 emission reduction in the logistics industry. The results display that overall, environmental regulations contribute to carbon reduction in the logistics industry (an inverted N-shaped effect). After endogeneity test and various robustness tests such as replacing the variable value of core variable, this conclusion still has good reliability. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the carbon reduction effect of mandatory environmental regulations fluctuates frequently (a W-shaped impact). However, the carbon reduction impact of incentive environmental regulations has gradually shifted from insignificant in the early stages to prominent in the later stages (an inverted U-shaped pattern). Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of environmental regulations on carbon reduction in the eastern, central, and western regions also has significant nonlinear characteristics. Finally, this article verifies that technological innovation and energy consumption structure are effective intermediate mechanisms for environmental regulations to affect emission reduction. The research findings provide practical inspiration for the government to formulate relevant environmental policies and promote the green development of the logistics industry.