Tourist Decision-Making and Types of Crises: Risk Attitudes, Knowledge, and Destination Preference Persistence

The paper addresses how individual rankings of destinations change between non-crisis and crisis conditions, and across different types of crises under conditions of bounded rationality in the face of shifting risks and uncertainties. The impacts of three types of potential crises—heatwaves, epidemics, and terrorism—are analyzed using novel multi-perspective experimental methods linked to a five-country international survey of risk attitudes and knowledge. Destination preferences, including strong persistence during crises, are explained by how the influence of tacit and codified knowledge is shaped by the familiarity heuristic and recency bias. Individual responses are also moderated by tolerance of and competence to manage risks. The findings have implications for destination management and marketing.