大流行
超额死亡率
2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)
死亡率
人口学
公共卫生
医学
社会学
疾病
病理
传染病(医学专业)
护理部
作者
Jan P. Vandenbroucke,Neil Pearce
标识
DOI:10.2105/ajph.2024.307572
摘要
We discuss some intriguing methodological aspects of excess mortality analyses, which have been widely used to describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe the main ways of presenting excess mortality: as a mortality rate (incidence rate) or as a percentage increase (relative risk or rate ratio). We discuss what should be regarded as the null value of excess mortality (i.e., when countries or regions can be judged as having fared equally well) and when age and sex standardization, adjustment for other determinants of the spread of a pandemic, or both is necessary. We discuss the level of detail by time and place and person that may be necessary. We note that an excess mortality comparison is essentially a difference-in-differences analysis. We conclude that, although one cannot rule out using excess mortality analyses for causal effect estimates, such analyses will remain most fruitful for generating hypotheses about both the efficiency of measures to curtail the pandemic and factors that cannot be influenced. Nevertheless, a judicious use of arguments and counterarguments can then lead to identifying best practices for various situations. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print March 28, 2024:e1-e6. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307572).
科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI