Prediction of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke Using Registry Data and Machine Learning Methods: The Erlangen Stroke Registry

Background: There have been multiple efforts toward individual prediction of recurrent strokes based on structured clinical and imaging data using machine learning algorithms. Some of these efforts resulted in relatively accurate prediction models. However, acquiring clinical and imaging data is typically possible at provider sites only and is associated with additional costs. Therefore, we developed recurrent stroke prediction models based solely on data easily obtained from the patient at home. Methods: Data from 384 patients with ischemic stroke were obtained from the Erlangen Stroke Registry. Patients were followed at 3 and 12 months after first stroke and then annually, for about 2 years on average. Multiple machine learning algorithms were applied to train predictive models for estimating individual risk of recurrent stroke within 1 year. Double nested cross-validation was utilized for conservative performance estimation and models’ learning capabilities were assessed by learning curves. Predicted probabilities were calibrated, and relative variable importance was assessed using explainable artificial intelligence techniques. Results: The best model achieved the area under the curve of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64–0.76) and relatively good probability calibration. The most predictive factors included patient’s family and housing circumstances, rehabilitative measures, age, high calorie diet, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, percutaneous endoscopic gastrotomy, number of family doctor’s home visits, and patient’s mental state. Conclusions: Developing fairly accurate models for individual risk prediction of recurrent ischemic stroke within 1 year solely based on registry data is feasible. Such models could be applied in a home setting to provide an initial risk assessment and identify high-risk patients early.