A Test of Several Hypotheses for the Determination of Seed Number in Amelanchier arborea, Using Simulated Probability Distributions to Evaluate Data

The number of seeds per fruit is variable within Amelanchier arborea trees. Because A. arborea flowers are five-carpellate and each carpel contains two ovules, we were able to use the pattern of seed maturation within fruits to test whether the failure of some ovules to develop into seeds is determined by mechanisms operating at the level of carpels, such as stigma-clogging, or by mechanisms operating at the level of ovules, such as ovule infertility. The presence of one-, two-, and zero-seeded carpels demonstrated that the number of ovules developing into seeds was not due entirely to carpel-level phenomena. In order to test the hypothesis of carpel independent seed development, without the assumption that all ovules have the same probability of developing into seeds, it was necessary to use simulation, since no conventional statistical models were appropriate. Analysis of this simulation allowed us to reject carpel independent processes as the only determinant of seed number. A mixed model of seed development, in which some carpels fail entirely and ovules in the remaining carpels develop equiprobably, was shown to be consistent with the data.