The association between obesity and outcomes in acute pancreatitis: an individual patient data meta-analysis

Objectives There are data to suggest that obesity is associated with local and systemic complications as well as mortality in acute pancreatitis (AP). Cohort studies to date, however, have shown conflicting results from mostly unadjusted analyses. Therefore, we performed an individual patient data meta-analysis with the primary aim to investigate the association between obesity and mortality in AP. Our secondary aim was to investigate the association between obesity and necrosis, organ failure, multiple organ failure, and invasive intervention. Patients and methods We systematically searched four electronic databases for prospective studies on obesity and outcomes in AP. Researchers of eligible studies were invited to share individual patient data using a standardized data collection form. All end points were investigated with a one-stage mixed effects Poisson model with random intercepts and forced entry of relevant confounders. Results We included five databases with 1302 patients, of whom 418 (32%) were obese. In total, 466 (36%) patients had necrosis, 328 (25%) had organ failure, 188 (14%) had multiple organ failure, 210 (16%) had an intervention, and 84 (7%) patients died. We found no significant association between obesity and mortality [relative risk (RR) 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89–2.20], necrosis (RR: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.90–1.31) or invasive intervention (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.83–1.47) after adjustment for confounders. However, obesity was independently associated with the development of organ failure (RR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.11–1.73) and multiple organ failure (RR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.35–2.42). Conclusion Obesity is independently associated with the development of organ failure and multiple organ failure in AP. However, there is no association between obesity and mortality, necrosis, and an intervention.