Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for the risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmia during hospitalization in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Objective To develop and validate a clinical prediction model for the risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmia in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) during hospitalization, and evaluate the effect of the prediction model. Methods A retrospective study was conducted. A total of 2 649 patients with AMI admitted to cardiology department of Changzhou No.2 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from December 2012 to August 2020 were enrolled. The clinical characteristics including gender, age, medical history, discharge diagnosis, vital signs during hospitalization, electrocardiogram characteristics at admission, laboratory examination indexes, interventional treatment, drug usage, malignant ventricular arrhythmias [mainly included sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular flutter or ventricular fibrillation (VF)], and death were recorded. All patients were divided into two groups according to whether VT/VF occurred during their hospitalization. Independent risk factors for VT/VF during hospitalization were evaluated by multivariate Logistic regression analysis, and a clinical prediction model was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was plotted, and the area under ROC curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model. Results A total of 2 649 eligible patients with AMI were enrolled, of whom 134 (5.06%) developed VT/VF during hospitalization. The in-hospital mortality rate in VT/VF group was significantly higher than that in non-VT/VF group (38.1% vs. 1.7%, P 11.1 mmol/L (OR = 1.841, 95%CI was 1.171-2.893), LVEF 100 μmol/L (OR = 2.498, 95%CI was 1.170-5.334) were independent risk factors for VT/VF in patients with AMI (all P Conclusions The incidence of VT/VF during hospitalization of AMI patients significantly increases the risk of in-hospital death. The independent risk factors of VT/VF are Killip grade ≥ 3, random blood glucose > 11.1 mmol/L, LVEF 100 μmol/L. The newly constructed clinical prediction model has certain predictive value for the occurrence risk of VT/VF.