Predictors of Stone-Related Events in Asymptomatic Untreated Intrarenal Calculi

Purpose: There is a lack of data on the natural history of asymptomatic intrarenal calculi. In this study, we investigate stone-related events (SREs) in patients with untreated intrarenal calculi. We also investigate predictive factors for SREs. Methods: All patients found with an asymptomatic intrarenal calculus on CT kidney, ureter, bladder managed conservatively with interval imaging for ≥6 months were included. Patients were evaluated for any SRE. The rate of event according to calculus size, location, and number of calculi was also analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine significant predictors for SREs. Results: In total, 266 renal units from 177 patients met inclusion criteria. The mean stone size was 4.44 mm (range 1-25 mm). Duration of follow-up was 43.78 ± 26.86 months (range 6-106 months). The overall rate of SREs, including intervention (n = 80) and spontaneous stone passage after ureteral colic (n = 40), was 45.1% (n = 120/266). Stones >5 mm were more likely to lead to an event compared with stones ≤5 mm (odds ratio [OR]: 2.94; p = 0.01). Interpolar stones and stones located in multiple calices were more likely to cause a SRE than lower pole stones (OR: 2.05; p = 0.05 and OR: 2.29; p = 0.03, respectively). Conclusion: In this large series of patients with asymptomatic intrarenal calculi, the incidence of a spontaneous SRE was 45.1% after 41 months. Stone size and stone location were significant predictors for a SRE. Information from this study will enable urologists to accurately risk stratify patients with asymptomatic renal stones.