[Analysis on pneumoconiosis characteristic and its prediction in one coal mine].

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the characteristic of pneumoconiosis on coal miners and provide scientific evidences for its prevention. METHODS: To analyze the data of pneumoconiosis from one coal mine with the historical study and to predict its development tendency by the grey model of GM (1,1). RESULTS: (1) The year of work experience of pneumoconiosis (stage I) was 19.9 years and the age of its diagnosis (stage I) was 51.4 years. There was an obvious tendency that they became longer with years' back-shift. (2) During near forty years, the progression rates of pneumoconiosis from stage I to II and II to III were 13.6% and 11.2%, and the mean time was 8.3 and 8.1 years, respectively. It was obvious that the progression rate decreased gradually and the span prolonged with years' back-shift. (3) The complication rate of pneumoconiosis with lung tuberculosis was 12.5% and it increased with the progression of pneumoconiosis. The rate in dead cases was significantly higher than that in live cases (P < 0.01). (4) The sequence of death causes was pneumoconiosis (20.0%), lung tuberculosis (18.3%), chronic cor pulmonale (17.9%), and pulmonary carcinoma (9.0%), et al. (5) It was predicted that there would be 28 new cases every year during 2001-2020 years and the accumulated numbers of pneumoconiosis would be 2854 cases in 2020, but with a downward trends in the prevalence of -1.7%. CONCLUSION: It was suggested that the prevalence of pneumoconiosis should decrease obviously. However, it still remains a challenge about the task of effectively preventing and curing it or its complication.