Carbon sinks/sources' spatiotemporal heterogeneity and their spatial response to economic-social factors in relatively developed regions: A case of China's coastal area

With the global climate change, carbon reduction in economically active regions has gradually become a focus of attention and its underlying drivers were essential for understanding alterations in ecosystems in response to human behavior. However, the exploration of Carbon Sinks/Sources Patterns (CSSP) in an Economic-Social context was lacking. Distinguished from traditional Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) estimation methods, we optimized model parameters, adjusted estimation logic, and revealed CSSP more reasonably. Moreover, spatial econometric model was used to reveal the spatial effects mechanism of Economic-Social Development on CSSP. Over the past 20 years, we revealed that: (a) The pattern of NEP exhibited distinct spatial heterogeneity, with higher sinks observed in the north and offshore regions. It demonstrated regular cyclic fluctuations, averaging a 3-4-year cycle, featuring a gradual ascent followed by a rapid descent; (b) The Carbon Sequestration Capacity (CSC) of vegetation significantly increased. Based on the carbon sink properties, the study area was distinctly divided into three clusters; (c) CSSP have been profoundly affected by economic-social factors. Economic growth and industrial structure optimization contributed to the enhancement of CSC, but population aggregation and urban expansion had negative impacts. The direct effect of innovation capacity and the spatial spillover effect of industrial structure optimization were negative. Overall, exploring CSSP against the backdrop of economic-social factors not only provides a new perspective for understanding the regularities of change and the underlying mechanisms driven by human factors but also offers valuable insights for achieving sustainable development and green growth in other coastal regions globally.