Echelon peaking path of China's provincial building carbon emissions: Considering peak and time constraints

The significant differences in the level of economic development, energy structure, and natural resource endowments between provinces in China means that the development trajectories of building carbon emissions also differ significantly. Therefore, conducting peaking studies of building carbon emissions only at the national level may lead to large errors. Using a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches and considering the actual situation of each province, this study constructed a provincial-level building carbon emission model for China and established differentiated scenario parameters based on peak and time constraints. By comparing and analyzing the peak value and peak time under different scenarios, the effective echelon peaking path for provincial building carbon emissions was determined. The results show that the transitional regions with high urbanization rates such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the eastern regions with economically developed such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai should take more responsibility for emission reduction, and reach the peak of building carbon emissions earlier. Instead, a certain time and space for development should be given to the central regions with relatively low urbanization rates and large populations such as Anhui, Henan, Hubei, and to the underdeveloped western regions such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Shannxi. This study provides a decision-making reference to achieve building energy conservation and emission reduction in Chinese provinces and foreign regions.