Temperature-Dependent Density and Viscosity Prediction for Hydrocarbons: Machine Learning and Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Machine learning-based predictive models allow rapid and reliable prediction of material properties and facilitate innovative materials design. Base oils used in the formulation of lubricant products are complex hydrocarbons of varying sizes and structure. This study developed Gaussian process regression-based models to accurately predict the temperature-dependent density and dynamic viscosity of 305 complex hydrocarbons. In our approach, strongly correlated/collinear predictors were trimmed, important predictors were selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization and prior domain knowledge, hyperparameters were systematically optimized by Bayesian optimization, and the models were interpreted. The approach provided versatile and quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models with relatively simple predictors for determining the dynamic viscosity and density of complex hydrocarbons at any temperature. In addition, we developed molecular dynamics simulation-based descriptors and evaluated the feasibility and versatility of dynamic descriptors from simulations for predicting the material properties. It was found that the models developed using a comparably smaller pool of dynamic descriptors performed similarly in predicting density and viscosity to models based on many more static descriptors. The best models were shown to predict density and dynamic viscosity with coefficient of determination (R²) values of 99.6% and 97.7%, respectively, for all data sets, including a test data set of 45 molecules. Finally, partial dependency plots (PDPs), individual conditional expectation (ICE) plots, local interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) values, and trimmed model R² values were used to identify the most important static and dynamic predictors of the density and viscosity.