Accuracy of Trauma Surgeons Prospective Estimation of the Injury Severity Score: A Pilot Study

Injury Severity Score (ISS) has limited utility as a prospective predictor of trauma outcomes as it is currently scored by abstractors post-discharge. This study aimed to determine accuracy of ISS estimation at time of admission. Attending trauma surgeons assessed the Abbreviated Injury Scale of each body region for patients admitted during their call, from which estimated ISS (eISS) was calculated. The eISS was considered concordant to abstracted ISS (aISS) if both were in the same category: mild (<9), moderate (9-15), severe (16-25), or critical (>25). Ten surgeons completed 132 surveys. Overall ISS concordance was 52.2%; 87.5%, 30.8%, 34.8%, and 61.7% for patients with mild, moderate, severe, and critical aISS, respectively; unweighted k = .36, weighted k = .69. This preliminarily supports attending trauma surgeons’ ability to predict severity of injury in real time, which has important clinical and research implications.