Assessing the susceptibility for potential site suitability and distribution of flamingos with respect to changing climate using Maxent modelling

This study assesses the habitat suitability and distribution of flamingos at Sambhar lake, India's largest inland saline wetland, under current and future climatic conditions using a Maxent species distribution model integrated with remote sensing techniques. Flamingo populations, particularly the greater and lesser species, are increasingly threatened by climate change, habitat degradation, and anthropogenic activities. Environmental indices such as Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Land Surface Water Index (LSWI), and Surface algal bloom index (SABI), along with bioclimatic variables, were used to model habitat suitability in 2021 and project conditions for 2050 and 2070. Results showed that areas classified as highly suitable habitats decreased drastically from 12 % in 2021 to 0 % by 2070, while unsuitable areas rose from 37.5 % to 95.6 %, signalling a severe habitat contraction. The Area Under Curve (AUC) model achieved a high accuracy of (AUCtrain = 0.91; AUCtest = 0.85), with temperature seasonality (30 %) and precipitation in the driest quarter (15.1 %) emerging as key predictors. Remote sensing revealed that declining algal concentrations and water availability negatively impact flamingo food sources. Ongoing land-use changes, illegal salt pan encroachments, and unsustainable water extraction have further fragmented the habitat, leading to trophic disruptions. The projected future habitat loss aligns with regional and global patterns of wetland degradation. This study highlights the urgent need for integrated conservation strategies, regulatory enforcement, and restoration efforts to ensure the long-term survival of flamingos and the ecological integrity of Sambhar lake. • Novel MaxEnt model integration reveals flamingo habitat decline by 2070 at Sambhar Lake. • Highlights NDWI, LSWI, SABI indices for unique wetland conservation strategies. • Geospatial indicators link human impacts to flamingo habitat suitability decline. • Predictive modelling advocates proactive policy for the Ramsar site's avian ecosystem. • Study bridges MaxEnt outputs with actionable flamingo conservation frameworks.