Yield trends and yield gap analysis of major crops in the world

This study aims to quantify the gap between current and potential yields of major crops in the world, and the production constraints that contribute to this yield gap. Using an expert-based evaluation of yield gaps and the literature, global and regional yields and yield trends of major crops are quantified, yield gaps evaluated by crop experts, current yield progress by breeding estimated, and different yield projections compared. Results show decreasing yield growth for wheat and rice, but still high growth rates for maize. The yield gap analysis provides quantitative estimates of the production constraints for a number of crops and regions and reveals the difficulty to measure and compare yield potentials and actual yields consistently under a range of environmental conditions, and it shows the difficulty to disentangle interacting production constraints. FAO yield growth projections are generally lower than what possibly could be gained by closing current yield gaps.