Normative data and percentile curves for axial length and axial length/corneal curvature in Chinese children and adolescents aged 4–18 years

To develop age-specific and gender-specific reference percentile charts for axial length (AL) and AL/corneal radius of curvature (AL/CR) and, to use percentiles to determine probability of myopia and estimate refractive error (RE).Analysis of AL, cycloplegic RE and CR of 14 127 Chinese participants aged 4-18 years from 3 studies. AL and AL/CR percentiles estimated using Lambda-Mu-Sigma method and compared for agreement using intraclass correlation (ICC). Logistic regression was used to model risk of myopia based on age, gender, AL and AL/CR percentiles. Accuracy of AL progression and RE estimated using percentiles was validated using an independent sample of 5742 eyes of children aged 7-10 years.Age-specific and gender-specific AL and AL/CR (3rd, 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th and 95th) percentiles are presented. Concordance between AL and AL/CR percentiles improved with age (0.13 at 4 years to >0.75 from 13 years) and a year-to-year change was observed for all except <10th percentile from 15 years. Increasing age, AL and AL/CR was associated with a more myopic RE (r2=0.45,0.70 and 0.83, respectively). The sensitivity and specificity of the model to estimate probability of myopia was 86.0% and 84.5%, respectively. Estimation of 1-year change in AL using percentiles correlated highly with actual AL (ICC=0.98). Concordance of estimated to actual RE was high (ICC=0.80) and within ±0.50D and ±1.0D of actual RE for 47.4% and 78.9% of eyes, respectively.Age-specific and gender-specific AL and AL/CR percentiles provide reference data, aid in identifying and monitoring individuals at risk of myopia and have utility in screening for myopia. AL/CR percentiles were more accurate in estimating probability of myopia in younger children.