The gambling preference and stock price: Evidence from China's stock market

Considering the strong gambling preference of retail investors in emerging markets and using the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2018, this paper constructs an index of investor's gambling preference based on the theory of explicit preference and develops a factor model to capture the risk premium of gambling by introducing gambling factors. The results show that the factor model not only fits the gambling characteristics of the Chinese stock market well but also has strong explanatory power for common market anomalies. Through the index of capital gains over-hang (Wang et al., 2016), this paper further finds that facing different degrees of losses, investors will show different gambling preferences. The factor model also shows stronger explanatory power in the sample with more losses, revealing the investment characteristics of retail investors that the more you gamble and the more you lose. This study would be meaningful for exploring behavioral pricing factors, understanding emerging stock markets and supporting investment practice. • We construct an investor gambling preference index (GP) using the PCA method. • Investor gambling preference can significantly predict stock returns. • The predictive power of the GP will be strengthened with the loss of the investor. • The gambling factor model is constructed based on the gambling preference index. • The gambling factor model has a smaller GRS and powerful explanatory for anomalies.