溢出效应
信用违约掉期
经济
新兴市场
货币经济学
石油价格
金融经济学
下行风险
掉期(金融)
主权违约
主权
国际经济学
信用风险
宏观经济学
主权债务
财务
法学
政治
文件夹
政治学
作者
Jun Wang,Xiaolei Sun,Jian Ping Li
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2019.101350
摘要
Based on the GARCHCopula-CoVaR model, this paper explores the behavior of sovereign CDS spreads under extreme oil price movements by taking G7 and BRICS countries as examples. We reveal that the upside/downside CoVaR values of sovereign CDS spreads differ significantly from VaR values among all countries. This phenomenon illustrates that extreme oil returns are vital risks for both emerging and developed markets. Moreover, the impact of extreme oil returns on oil importers differs depending on the economic stability of each country, which is reflected in the heterogeneity of the spillover intensity.
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