Influence of Tropospheric Ozone Control on Exposure to Ultraviolet Radiation at the Surface

Improving air quality by reducing ambient ozone (O(3)) will likely lower O(3) concentrations throughout the troposphere and increase the transmission of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation to the surface. The changes in surface UV radiation between two control scenarios (nominally 84 and 70 ppb O(3) for summer 2020) in the Eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. are estimated, using tropospheric O(3) profiles calculated with a chemistry-transport model (Community Multi-Scale Air Quality, CMAQ) as inputs to a detailed model of the transfer of solar radiation through the atmosphere (tropospheric ultraviolet-visible, TUV) for clear skies, weighed for the wavelengths known to induce sunburn and skin cancer. Because the incremental emission controls differ according to region, strong spatial variability in O(3) reductions and in corresponding UV radiation increments is seen. The geographically averaged UV increase is 0.11 ± 0.03%, whereas the population-weighted increase is larger, 0.19 ± 0.06%, because O(3) reductions are greater in more densely populated regions. These relative increments in exposure are non-negligible given the already high incidence of UV-related health effects, but are lower by an order of magnitude or more than previous estimates.