Hukou transfer intention of rural migrants with settlement intention in China: How cities’ administrative level matters

This paper is the first to investigate the role of China's top-down model captured by cities' administrative level in the hukou transfer intention of rural migrants with settlement intention. We develop a conceptual framework and attribute rural migrants' decision on hukou transfer to a comprehensive evaluation of the benefit, risk, and opportunity. Using a Multilevel Logistic Regression, the empirical study uncovers that the impact of cities' administrative level comprises direct effect and moderating effect. The direct effect highlights the benefit of hukou transfer, through which cities' administrative level positively affects rural migrants' hukou transfer intention. The moderating effect underlines both the benefit and risk of obtaining urban local hukou, through which cities' administrative level shapes the relationship between marital status/migration type/arable land/homestead/household income and hukou transfer intention. Our work offers an international insight into rural migrants' settlement by revealing the role of cities' political system in shaping the stratification of the distribution of permanent migrants at the city level. It also contributes to the knowledge of the neoclassical perspective in migration studies by considering rural migrants' long-term cost-benefit balance on settlement.