Nomograms for Predicting Recurrent Herniation in PETD with Preoperative Radiological Factors

PURPOSE: To investigate the preoperative radiological risk factors for recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) within 1 year after percutaneous endoscopic transforaminal discectomy (PETD). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective case-control study was conducted. Between January 2013 and November 2019, a total of 1210 patients with single-level L4/5 LDH who underwent PETD were enrolled in the present study. In total, 62 rLDH patients were diagnosed and collected based on the clinical and radiological manifestations, and 224 non-rLDH controls were selected from the remaining 1148 patients. Preoperative radiological parameters were collected and measured. An age threshold to distinguish patients into subgroups was established using the Youden index. The relationships between the risk factors and rLDH were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses in two subgroups. Predictive models were established based on logistic analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the predictive models. RESULTS: In the present study, logistic analysis identified six significant predictors associated with rLDH in the young group: superior endplate concave angle (ECA), sacral slope, Modic changes, sagittal range of motion (sROM), extension intervertebral angle (IVA), and lumbar lordosis. Four significant predictors were identified in the elderly group: disc height index (DHI), retrolisthesis (posterior spondylolisthesis), sROM, and extension IVA. Validation of both models demonstrated excellent model discrimination (AUC= 0.940 and 0.946, respectively). DCA also showed excellent clinical utility and benefits. CONCLUSION: The nomograms that we constructed could accurately predict individual patient recurrence risk. Individualized measures should be taken for patients of different ages with the above risk factors, and tailored postoperative surveillance of patients who underwent PETD can be planned.