3rd, 4th and 5th Graders' Probability Understanding

The purpose of this study is to analyze 3rd, 4th and 5th graders' probability understanding and raise issues concerning instructional methods and search for the possibility of learning probability. For the purpose, a descriptive study through pencil-and-paper test regarding fairness, sample space, probability of event, probability comparison, independence and conditional probability was conducted. The following conclusions were drawn from the results obtained in this study. First, the 3rd, 4th, and 5th grade students scored the highest in the sample space questions. In descending order of skill, the students scored the highest in sample space following probability of events, fairness and probability comparison. Second, however, the level of independence understanding was low. There was no meaningful differences between grades and the conditional probability was the least understood. The independence is difficult to develop naturally according to cognitive development. The conditional probability recognizing the probability of an event changes in non-replacement situations was very difficult for these students. Third, there were significant differences between the 5th graders and the 3rd and 4th graders in the probability comparison questions. It shows that 5th graders understand the concept of proportion when they compare equal ratio probability of an event. The 3rd graers could do different ratio probability of an event more easily than equal ratio probability of an event after they were instructed on probability comparison.