Who shapes the embodied carbon dioxide emissions of interconnected power grids in China? A seasonal perspective

With the rapid development of interregional power transmission, the redistribution of fossil and renewable energy resources has changed sharply, and its complexity poses a challenge to the evaluation of power carbon emission responsibility. This study constructs an interprovincial power transmission framework to measure the seasonal carbon emissions embodied in regional electricity consumption over the period of 2008-2015 based on quarterly data. Then, a structural decomposition approach was developed to identify the influential factors of carbon emissions embodied in provincial electricity consumption from a seasonal perspective. The results show that the assessment for embodied emissions of power consumption based on different levels of data may vary by as much as 20%, and the carbon emissions and carbon intensity of power consumption exhibit significant seasonal characteristics. Furthermore, it is revealed that the economic scale in the fourth quarter makes the most significant contribution to the emissions increment, especially in underdeveloped provinces, while the change in energy efficiency of power generation reduces more carbon emissions in the first and second quarters. In addition, the impact of the power transmission scale is more significant in the third and fourth quarters, and it has been close to or even more than the impact of traditional factors in some quarters. Finally, the impact of economic scale, power generation energy intensity, power generation mix and electricity utilization efficiency on the emissions of regional power grids shows a relatively stable increasing trend, but this trend of directional stability is not reflected in the effect of the power transmission structure and transmission scale. This study contributes to the identification of the impact of the power transmission structure and transmission scale. Moreover, this study highlights the importance of considering seasonal characteristics when estimating the carbon emissions of power consumption and formulating specific emission reduction policies. Additionally, it provides a more accurate evaluation of carbon emissions and proposes several prominent recommendations for policy makers.