Diabetes status, genetic susceptibility, and incident arrhythmias: A prospective cohort study of 457,151 participants

The association of diabetes onset age and duration with incident arrhythmias remains unclear. This study evaluates the association of diabetes onset age and duration with incident arrhythmias and assesses modifications by the genetic predisposition to atrial fibrillation (AF). We included 457,151 participants from the UK Biobank study. Multivariable Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used for the association between diabetes status, genetic predisposition, and risk of incident arrhythmias. The polygenic risk score (PRS) for AF comprised 142 single-nucleotide variants. Over 12 years of follow-up, we documented 23,518 AF, 9079 bradyarrhythmia, 9280 conduction system diseases, 3358 supraventricular arrhythmias, and 3095 ventricular arrhythmias. Compared with non-diabetes, the risks of AF increased by 19%, 25%, and 36% for those with diabetes durations <5, 5–9, and ≥10 years, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, with the increase in diabetes onset age, the HRs of outcomes were gradually attenuated. The multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) of diabetes for AF were 1.46 (1.24–1.71) in early middle age (<55 years), 1.21 (1.12–1.30) in late middle age (55–64 years), and 1.15 (1.06–1.24) in the elderly population (≥65 years). A significant interaction between diabetes status and AF-PRS for incident AF was observed (P for interaction <0.001). The same trends were observed for the other arrhythmias. Diabetes was associated with higher risks of incident arrhythmias, and younger age at onset of diabetes was significantly associated with higher risk of subsequent arrhythmias.