Global change progressively increases foliar nitrogen–phosphorus ratios in China's subtropical forests

Globally increased nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (P) ratios (N/P) affect the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, but few studies have addressed the variation of foliar N/P over time in subtropical forests. Foliar N/P indicates N versus P limitation in terrestrial ecosystems. Quantifying long-term dynamics of foliar N/P and their potential drivers is crucial for predicting nutrient status and functioning in forest ecosystems under global change. We detected temporal trends of foliar N/P, quantitatively estimated their potential drivers and their interaction between plant types (evergreen vs. deciduous and trees vs. shrubs), using 1811 herbarium specimens of 12 widely distributed species collected during 1920-2010 across China's subtropical forests. We found significant decreases in foliar P concentrations (23.1%) and increases in foliar N/P (21.2%). Foliar N/P increased more in evergreen species (22.9%) than in deciduous species (16.9%). Changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations ( P CO 2 $$ {\mathrm{P}}_{{\mathrm{CO}}_2} $$ ), atmospheric N deposition and mean annual temperature (MAT) dominantly contributed to the increased foliar N/P of evergreen species, while P CO 2 $$ {\mathrm{P}}_{{\mathrm{CO}}_2} $$ , MAT, and vapor pressure deficit, to that of deciduous species. Under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, increasing MAT and P CO 2 $$ {\mathrm{P}}_{{\mathrm{CO}}_2} $$ would continuously increase more foliar N/P in deciduous species than in evergreen species, with more 12.9%, 17.7%, and 19.4% versus 6.1%, 7.9%, and 8.9% of magnitudes under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The results suggest that global change has intensified and will progressively aggravate N-P imbalance, further altering community composition and ecosystem functioning of subtropical forests.