Physical Mechanism of Winter Temperature Multidecadal Variations in Arid Central Asia: The Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

Abstract This study investigates the influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on the multidecadal variability of winter surface air temperature in arid central Asia (ACASAT). Apart from a long-term warming trend, the observational analysis shows that the winter ACASAT exhibits a significant multidecadal variability, which is characterized by antiphase fluctuations with the AMO. The mechanism for this negative correlation between the AMO and the winter ACASAT is explored from the aspect of wave teleconnection. The AMO provides energy for the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern at middle and low altitudes by regulating the high-altitude wave train over the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, and thus has an impact on the remote climate in arid central Asia. Results from the linear baroclinic model (LBM) provide evidence for the linkage between the AMO and the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern. When the AMO is in its warm periods, the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern is in a positive phase, which further makes the cold air from the northeast strengthen, leading to the anomalously colder surface air temperature in arid central Asia. Based on the relationship that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) leads the AMO by 15–20 years, it is further found that there is a leading relationship between the NAO and the winter ACASAT via the AMO. On this basis, an empirical model using the NAO as a predictor was established to predict the ACASAT, and the empirical model shows good hindcast performance. Results from the model show that the winter ACASAT will continue to rise in the next 10 years and decline after 2030.