Spatial spillover effect of carbon emission trading policy on carbon emission reduction: Empirical data from transport industry in China

Carbon emission trading policy (CETP) is an important tool for energy-savings and emission reduction. Currently, the spatial spillover effect of CETP on carbon emission reduction in transport industry is still unknown. To fill this gap, this paper employs a spatial econometric model (SEM) to estimate the spillover effect of CETP on traffic carbon emissions, and further discusses the boundary effect of spatial spillover. Additionally, this paper established a spatial mediating effect model to investigate the transmission mechanism of CETP in reducing traffic carbon emissions, and further discussed the impact of government intervention in carbon emissions trading market. The results showed that CETP had a significant effect on cutting down the traffic carbon emissions in the pilot areas, and that there existed a spatial spillover effect. Moreover, near the threshold of 250 km–650 km, the spillover effect was strongest. Excessive government intervention will cause the carbon market mechanism to fail, which will be bad for reducing traffic carbon emissions. The CETP can promote the traffic carbon emissions by improving the technical research level (Tech) and energy consumption structure (TES). The purpose of this paper was to provide decision-making suggestions for the government to improve and perfect the carbon emission trading mechanism and realize the carbon neutrality of transport industry as soon as possible.