Quantitative CT Evaluation of Emphysema Progression over 10 Years in the COPDGene Study

Background Long-term studies of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can evaluate emphysema progression. Adjustment for differences in equipment and scanning protocols of individual CT examinations have not been studied extensively. Purpose To evaluate emphysema progression in current and former smokers in the COPDGene cohort over three imaging points obtained at 5-year intervals accounting for individual CT parameters. Materials and Methods Current and former cigarette smokers enrolled between 2008 and 2011 from the COPDGene study were prospectively followed for 10 years between 2008 and 2020. Extent of emphysema as adjusted lung density (ALD) from quantitative CT was measured at baseline and at 5- and 10-year follow-up. Linear mixed models adjusted for CT technical characteristics were constructed to evaluate emphysema progression. Mean annual changes in ALD over consecutive 5-year study periods were estimated by smoking status and baseline emphysema. Results Of 8431 participants at baseline (mean age, 60 years ± 9 [SD]; 3905 female participants), 4913 were at 5-year follow-up and 1544 participants were at 10-year follow-up. There were 4134 (49%) participants who were current smokers, and 4449 (53%) participants had more than trace emphysema at baseline. Current smokers with more than trace emphysema showed the largest decline in ALD, with mean annual decreases of 1.4 g/L (95% CI: 1.2, 1.5) in the first 5 years and 0.9 g/L (95% CI: 0.7, 1.2) in the second 5 years. Accounting for CT noise, field of view, and scanner model improved model fit for estimation of emphysema progression (P < .001 by likelihood ratio test). Conclusion Evaluation at CT of emphysema progression in the COPDGene study showed that, during the span of 10 years, participants with pre-existing emphysema who continued smoking had the largest decline in ALD. Adjusting for CT equipment and protocol factors improved these longitudinal estimates. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00608764 © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See the editorial by Parraga and Kirby in this issue. An earlier incorrect version appeared online. This article was corrected on November 10, 2023.