A Forecasting Method for Macro-Control Policy of Heating Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions Based on Building Area and Energy Intensity: A Case Study of Northern China

In response to extreme climate change, China has set a goal of reaching emission peak by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Energy conservation and emission reduction of building heating in northern China are key to achieving this goal. Based on building area prediction and energy consumption intensity, this paper establishes a model for calculating heating energy consumption and carbon emissions in northern residential buildings at the macro level, which provides a basis for formulating policies related to heating and emission reduction in northern buildings. Based on the research method of scenario projection, combining the carbon emission subsets and future heating energy mix projections in northern China, the heating energy consumption in northern China decreases to 175, 149 and 135 Mtce in 2050 under the baseline, medium control and strict control scenarios, respectively. The heating energy consumption in the northern region should be controlled at least under the medium control scheme. Under this scenario, building heating carbon emissions in the north could be reduced to 450 MtCO2 by 2050, or 280 MtCO2 if more stringent abatement technologies are adopted. In order to achieve this goal, a combination of energy-saving technologies must be used. The use of biomass and solar technologies should be emphasized in rural heating, while envelope renovation makes the greatest contribution to heating energy savings, with envelope renovation contributing up to 92 Mtce to urban heating.