Using Momentary Assessment and Machine Learning to Identify Barriers to Self-management in Type 1 Diabetes: Observational Study

Background For adolescents living with type 1 diabetes (T1D), completion of multiple daily self-management tasks, such as monitoring blood glucose and administering insulin, can be challenging because of psychosocial and contextual barriers. These barriers are hard to assess accurately and specifically by using traditional retrospective recall. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) uses mobile technologies to assess the contexts, subjective experiences, and psychosocial processes that surround self-management decision-making in daily life. However, the rich data generated via EMA have not been frequently examined in T1D or integrated with machine learning analytic approaches. Objective The goal of this study is to develop a machine learning algorithm to predict the risk of missed self-management in young adults with T1D. To achieve this goal, we train and compare a number of machine learning models through a learned filtering architecture to explore the extent to which EMA data were associated with the completion of two self-management behaviors: mealtime self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) and insulin administration. Methods We analyzed data from a randomized controlled pilot study using machine learning–based filtering architecture to investigate whether novel information related to contextual, psychosocial, and time-related factors (ie, time of day) relate to self-management. We combined EMA-collected contextual and insulin variables via the MyDay mobile app with Bluetooth blood glucose data to construct machine learning classifiers that predicted the 2 self-management behaviors of interest. Results With 1231 day-level SMBG frequency counts for 45 participants, demographic variables and time-related variables were able to predict whether daily SMBG was below the clinical threshold of 4 times a day. Using the 1869 data points derived from app-based EMA data of 31 participants, our learned filtering architecture method was able to infer nonadherence events with high accuracy and precision. Although the recall score is low, there is high confidence that the nonadherence events identified by the model are truly nonadherent. Conclusions Combining EMA data with machine learning methods showed promise in the relationship with risk for nonadherence. The next steps include collecting larger data sets that would more effectively power a classifier that can be deployed to infer individual behavior. Improvements in individual self-management insights, behavioral risk predictions, enhanced clinical decision-making, and just-in-time patient support in diabetes could result from this type of approach.