The limited reach of authoritarian powers

Authoritarian states often command tremendous resources, but their ability to fundamentally change regimes abroad remains in question. Proponents of an “authoritarian resurgence” have speculated that China and Russia are rolling back democracy around the world, much like fascist powers in the interwar period. By contrast, the introductory article of this special issue theorizes that current authoritarian powers are not catalyzing autocracy far afield. Rather, they are prudentially defending the surrounding political order. The present article applies this framework to make sense of cross-national trends in democracy and authoritarianism. The bulk of evidence supports the notion that authoritarian powers have regionally shored up existing regimes, rather than globally subverting democracy. Evidence from around the world indicates the number of electoral democracies has been growing, democracy has remained tenuous in lower-income countries, and democratic breakdowns have owed more to unfavourable local conditions than predacious external actors.