Divergent responses of vegetation resilience to climate change across permafrost and non-permafrost regions in the Greater Khingan Mountains, China

Abstract The ability of alpine-cold region ecosystems to resist and recover from external disturbances is declining due to climate change and intensified human activities, increasing the risk of vegetation resilience loss. The Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM), where permafrost and non-permafrost regions coexist, has experienced pronounced climatic changes in recent decades, yet the spatial patterns and long-time trends of vegetation resilience remain unclear. In this study, we employed the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and early warning indicators (i.e. lag-one autocorrelation (AC1)) to quantify and compare vegetation resilience across the permafrost and non-permafrost regions in the study area. Furthermore, variations in vegetation resilience were explained in relation to relevant meteorological variables. Our results suggested that vegetation resilience in the GKM exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with permafrost region displaying higher resilience than non-permafrost region. Notably, although NDVI indicated a widespread greening trend, vegetation resilience was not always high across both permafrost and non-permafrost regions. Air temperature was the primary climatic driver in permafrost region, while moisture-related factors, such as precipitation and the aridity index, were more influential in non-permafrost region. In addition, the combined effects among climatic factors explain the spatial heterogeneity of resilience better than any single variable. The research provides new insights into the response of alpine-cold regions to external disturbances and their capacity for self-sustained stabilization, which will help develop strategies for regional ecosystem conservation and climate change adaptation.