An Uncertainty-Aware Hybrid Approach for Sea State Estimation Using Ship Motion Responses

Understanding current environmental conditions is essential for autonomous ships, among which real-time estimation of sea conditions is a key aspect. Considering the ship as a large wave buoy, the sea state can be estimated from motion responses without extra sensors installed. This task is challenging since the relationship between the wave and the ship motion is hard to model. Existing methods include a wave buoy analogy (WBA) method, which assumes linearity between wave and ship motion, and a machine learning (ML) approach. Since the data collected from a vessel in the real world are typically limited to a small range of sea states, the ML method might fail when the encountered sea state is not in the training dataset. This article proposes a hybrid approach that combines the above two methods. The ML method is compensated by the WBA method based on the uncertainty of estimation results, and thus, the failure can be avoided. Real-world historical data from the Research Vessel Gunnerus are applied to validate the approach. Results indicate that the hybrid approach improves the estimation accuracy.