Scenario simulation of the tradeoff between ecological land and farmland in black soil region of Northeast China

The trade-off/synergy between planned ecological land and farmland is of great significance to food security, economic development and ecological environment protection in black soil region, and has become a global strategic issue related to the sustainable development of human society. Land use/cover (LUC) simulation model can be used to formulate sustainable land use strategies that balance farmland use and ecological environment protection. In this study, we combined the grey attribute of land resources with the complexity of land use/cover change (LUCC). By integrating grey Markov model and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, we discussed the characteristics of historical LUCC in Songnen Plain from 2000 to 2020, and simulated the LUC pattern of Songnen Plain in 2040 under different scenarios. At the same time, the landscape gradient evolution of ecological land and farmland under different scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and 2040 were quantitative analyzed in order to clarify the changes of ecological land and farmland in the study area in the past and future, which provided a basis for the tradeoff / synergy between farmland and ecological land. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The LUCC in 2020 was simulated with the Kappa coefficient was 0.82, the figure of merit (FOM) coefficient was 0.31, which verified the rationality of the accuracy of the model. (2) Whether it is baseline development (BL) scenario, farmland protection (FP) scenario, ecological protection (EP) scenario and black land protection (BP)scenario, the transformation of farmland and ecological land was distributed in the central and western areas, the transformation frequency of farmland, wetland and grassland was higher. (3) Landscape gradient analysis showed the degree of fragmentation of ecological land in Songnen Plain was high, and the anti-interference ability of farmland is strong. (4) The whole region is a trade-off between the two landscape, and the trade-off in the typical black soil area is about 20% higher than the non-typical black soil area. Black land protection scenario may be the best solution to coordinate the sustainable development of farmland and ecological land in the future. These studies will not only provide a theoretical basis for regional land management decision-making and urban planning and construction, but also provide some reference for its economic construction and sustainable development.