Extreme Flooding in Alexandria: Can Anticipatory Flood Management be a Solution?

Alexandria experienced heavy rainfall in October 2015 resulting in wide spread flooding, huge damages and seven deaths. This paper presents the analysis of the hydro- meteorological data to characterise the extremity of the event. The flood map of the city and its adjoining area prepared with LANDSAT-8 satellite images shows the extent of flooding. The analysis with the rainfall forecast from the ECMWF clearly demonstrated that the extreme event could have been predicted days ahead. It is proposed to implement Anticipatory Flood Management in Alexandria (AFMA), which will allow using the extreme rainfall forecast to start pumping out water from Lake Maryot and Airport Lake before the event starts. This will enable extra storage space to accommodate some of the flood water from subsequent rain. An analysis of the October flood showed that 50% of the flood water due to the heavy rainfall could have been stored in the lakes had the AFMA been implemented. The study shows that the existing data allows us to implement AFMA to reduce flood consequences and pave the way to critically decide upon additional mitigation infrastructure. The recommendation of this study is currently being implemented.