Climate change and vegetation greening jointly drive the spatial pattern of net radiation variability in northern China

The spatial and temporal variations of net surface radiation (Rn) are critical for comprehending ecological environments. Nonetheless, the intricate interplay among Rn dynamics, vegetation growth, climate, and natural factors remains inadequately elucidated. In this study, we estimated net surface radiation based on Landsat data and ERA5 meteorological data in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, which closely matched the observable spatial distribution (R2 = 0.96), with an average growth rate of 0.15 MJ m−2 mth−1. Trend analyses and spatial autocorrelation were used to explore the spatial and temporal changes in net radiation from 2000 to 2020, the global Moran's index for net radiation was found to exceed 0.76, with fluctuating increases, showing a highly positive spatial distribution of Rn. Local Moran's I predominantly fell into two categories: ‘High-High’ and ‘Low-Low’, with the first increasing in range and the latter decreasing. Combining GeoDetector and PLS-SEM analyses, temperature and vegetation emerge as predominant drivers of net surface radiation variation within the study area, each contributing more than 17% to Rn change. Furthermore, interactions between any two factors typically exhibits nonlinear enhancement. PLS-SEM underscores the influence of vegetation and climate on Rn, with other factors indirectly affecting net radiation changes by influencing vegetation growth.