Resolution Effect of Soil Organic Carbon Prediction in a Large-Scale and Morphologically Complex Area

Topographic variables derived from digital elevation models (DEM) are the most commonly used predictor in soil organic carbon (SOC) prediction. The predictability of these variates for the spatial heterogenity of SOC is influenced by the size of DEM resolution. This paper aimed to investigate the resolution effect of the topography at multiple DEM resolutions and select the most important predictors and the optimal resolution for SOC prediction in a large-scale and morphologically complex area. The study area, covering 15 600 km2, was located in a mountainous province in China. A total of 3901 soil samples and three machine learning algorithms including random forest, gradient boosted regression tree, and artificial neural network were used to construct the SOC predictive models at resolutions of 30, 90, 150, 210, 270, 330, and 390 m. Topographic factors were derived from the DEM with an original resolution of 30 m and were subsequently resampled to varying resolutions by using the bilinear interpolation algorithm. The importance of each variate in each predictive model was computed for the most important predictor selection, and the determination coefficient (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of each predictive model were computed for the accuracy evaluation. Comparative analysis on point-based topographic representation, the accuracy of predictive models, and the variable importance was conducted among different resolutions to investigate the resolution effect on the SOC prediction and to select the optimal resolution for this study area. The results showed that topography was the key factor influencing the SOC distribution in this large-scale area due to the region’s mountainous nature, and the relative contribution of the topography to predict SOC distribution varied with DEM resolutions. Elevation was the most important topographic factor at all DEM resolutions. Accuracies of predictive models built on the three machine learning algorithms were all dependent on DEM resolution, indicating that DEM resolution had an important effect on SOC prediction. Overall, the random forest predictive models outperformed the other two algorithms, and its most accurate result was obtained at the 210-m resolution with an R2 of 0.25 and an RMSE of 4.77 g kg–1. In conclusion, we found that finer resolutions did not necessarily produce more accurate SOC predictions even in a large-scale and morphologically complex area. Therefore, investigating the resolution effect is suggested to select an optimal resolution for the SOC prediction in other regions characterized by similar geomorphological conditions as this study area.