The evolution of technological trajectories 1890–1990

This paper quantitatively identifies changes in technological opportunities during the last century. US patent data classified at a very detailed level are used as the source of reference. By analysing the complexities behind the changing technological opportunities, epochs and typical trajectories are traced empirically. Furthermore, it is shown how the composition of technological opportunities has evolved across historical waves. The paper illustrates how technological evolution has become increasingly interrelated and complex and how typical trajectories of individual technologies explain technological evolution better than conventional aggregate measures. Evidence also suggests how path-dependent technological change is characterized by ‘creative incremental development’.