Trump, US climate politics, and the evolving pattern of global climate governance

This paper argues that the Trump administration’s position on climate change should be understood more in terms of continuity than disjuncture. It develops this argument in four principal ways. First, it situates Trump in the US’s paradoxical relationship to the UNFCCC, as a would-be leader that struggles to commit itself to substantive action, and the evolving geopolitics within the UNFCCC. Second, the paper focuses on an on-going struggle between pro-fossil fuel interests and a ‘decarbonising’ bloc, interpreting Trump (like George W. Bush) as a pro-fossil fuel backlash. Third, it explores the pattern of climate politics within the US, where stalemate in Congress has been often offset by action at the state, city, and corporate levels. Fourth, it should be understood in relation to the emergence of a ‘global climate governance complex’, where the UNFCCC has to be understood in relation to multilevel and transnational governance initiatives on climate change.