Enhancing Dynamic On-demand Food Order Dispatching via Future-informed and Spatial-temporal Extended Decisions

On-demand food delivery (OFD) service has gained fast-growing popularity all around the world. Order dispatching is instrumental to large-scale OFD platforms, such as Meituan, which continuously match food order requests to couriers at a scale of tens of millions each day to satisfy the needs of consumers, couriers, and merchants. However, due to high dynamism and inevitable uncertainties in the real-world environment, it is not an easy task to achieve long-term global objective optimization through continuous isolated optimization decisions at each dispatch moment. Our work proposes the concept of "courier occupancy" (CO) to precisely quantify the impact of order assignment on the courier's delivery efficiency, realizing a decomposition of long-term and macro goals into various dispatch moments and micro decision-making dimensions. Then in the prediction phase, an improved and universally applicable distribution estimation method is designed to quantify CO which is a stochastic variable and contains future information, combining Monte Carlo dropout and knowledge distillation. In the optimization phase, we use CO to model the objective function at each dispatch moment to introduce future information and extend dispatch decisions from merely who to assign the order to both when and who to assign it, significantly enhancing the long-term optimization capability of dispatching decisions and avoiding local greed. We conduct extensive offline simulations based on real dispatching data as well as online AB tests through Meituan's platform. Results show that our method consistently improves the couriers' delivery efficiency and consumers' satisfaction.