Longitudinal pathways of numerical abilities in preschool: Cognitive and environmental correlates and relation to primary school mathematics achievement.

Children start preschool with large individual differences in their early numerical abilities. Little is known about the importance of heterogeneous patterns that exist within these individual differences. A person-centered analytic approach might be helpful to unravel these patterns and the cognitive and environmental factors that are associated with them. We applied a person-centered approach to a 5-year longitudinal study (N = 410, 213 boys) conducted in Belgium from preschool to grade 3. Preschoolers (Mage = 58.14 months, SDage = 3.51) were selected to represent the full range of socioeconomic backgrounds. We examined via Latent Profile Analysis the heterogeneous patterns that exist in preschoolers' early numerical development using measures of counting, numeral identification, comparison, ordering, and arithmetic abilities. We investigated the association between the derived numerical ability pathways, general cognitive factors (working memory, language, spatial ability) and the home math environment. We also evaluated the relation of these early numerical ability pathways to later mathematics achievement in grade 1 and 3. Four longitudinal pathways emerged: a low (15%), below-average (28%), above-average (44%), and a high numerical ability pathway (13%). Differences between the four pathways were mostly quantitative. Most of the general cognitive factors contributed to pathway membership, whereas the home math environment and socioeconomic status (SES) did not. The pathways differed in mathematics achievement in grade 1 and 3, and most of these differences remained when the covariates were considered. The results highlight the heterogeneity that is already present in preschoolers' numerical abilities and their predictive value for subsequent mathematics achievement. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).