Projection of Future Fire Weather in Eurasia by Mid‐21st Century

Abstract The accelerating impacts of global climate change have led to an increase in fire activity across Eurasia in recent years. Understanding how fire risk evolves under future climate scenarios is critical for effective management. This study estimates changes in fire potential and fire season length in Eurasia at midcentury (2046–2060), based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) driven with daily meteorology under either low (SSP1‐2.6) or high (SSP5‐8.5) warming scenarios simulated by 21 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Evaluations against satellite retrievals confirmed the effectiveness of FWI as a predictor of fire activity in Eurasia. After excluding one model with the highest biases, regional FWI is projected to increase by 15.0 ± 16.6% under SSP1‐2.6 and by 25.0 ± 18.6% under SSP5‐8.5 at midcentury compared to the present day (2000–2014). 95% climate models (19 of the 20) exhibited the increasing trends, highlighting the robustness projection. Increases in FWI are mainly attributed to the declining relative humidity and rising temperatures, with heightened importance of temperature under the warmer SSP5‐8.5 scenario. Following the changes in fire weather, fire season length increases by 14.9 ± 8.7% under SSP1‐2.6 and 21.4 ± 10.7% under SSP5‐8.5, underscoring the intensified risks associated with high‐warming pathways. This study reveals the spatiotemporal patterns of future fire weather and seasonality, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive management to mitigate fire risks across Eurasia as climate change continues to reshape fire regimes.