Degradation Modeling and Telemetry-Based Analysis of Solar Cells in LEO for Nano- and Pico-Satellites

In the last decades, small satellites such as CubeSats and PocketQubes have become popular platforms for scientific and applied missions in low Earth orbit (LEO). However, prolonged exposure to atomic oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, and thermal cycling in LEO leads to gradual degradation of onboard solar panels, reducing mission lifetime and performance. This study addresses the need to quantify and compare the degradation behavior of different solar cell technologies and protective coatings used in nanosatellites and pico-satellites. The aim is to evaluate the in-orbit performance of monocrystalline silicon (Si), gallium arsenide (GaAs), triple-junction (TJ) structures, and copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) cells under varying orbital and satellite parameters. Telemetry data from recent small satellite missions launched after 2020, combined with numerical modeling in GNU Octave, were used to assess degradation trends. The models were validated using empirical mission data, and statistical goodness-of-fit metrics (RMSE, R2) were applied to evaluate linear and exponential degradation patterns. Results show that TJ cells exhibit the highest resistance to LEO-induced degradation, while Si-based panels experience more pronounced power loss, especially in orbits below 500 km. Furthermore, smaller satellites (<10 kg) display higher degradation rates due to lower thermal inertia and limited shielding. These findings provide practical guidance for the selection of solar cell technologies, anti-degradation coatings, and protective strategies for long-duration CubeSat missions in diverse LEO environments.