西德克萨斯州中级
计量经济学
经济
石油价格
原油
样品(材料)
贝叶斯概率
贝叶斯推理
商品
金融经济学
推论
统计
计算机科学
数学
财务
货币经济学
人工智能
工程类
石油工程
色谱法
化学
出处
期刊:Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy
[World Scientific]
日期:2024-12-21
卷期号:16 (01)
被引量:69
标识
DOI:10.1142/s1793993325500048
摘要
Energy commodity price forecasts have always been quite important to a lot of market participants. To tackle the problem, our analysis looks at West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices on a daily basis. The sample under inquiry covers 10 years, from April 4, 2014 to April 3, 2024, and the price series under analysis has major financial implications. Here, Gaussian process regression methods are developed using Bayesian optimization techniques and cross-validation processes, and the resulting strategies are utilized to provide price projections. The relative root mean square error of 2.2743% indicates that our empirical prediction approach produces reasonably accurate price estimates for the out-of-sample assessment period of April 19, 2022–April 3, 2024. Models of price predictions give investors and governments the information they need to make wise choices about the crude oil market.
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