Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Water Resource Vulnerability in Four River Basins of Henan Province, China

Climate change, population growth, and socio-economic transformations present multifaceted challenges to the water resource systems in the four major river basins of Henan Province. Consequently, to gain a comprehensive understanding of water security within the study area, a quantitative assessment of water resource vulnerability (WRV) is imperative. In this investigation, the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) model serves as the analytical framework, subdividing vulnerability into three critical subsystems: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Utilizing a comprehensive evaluation index system, this study assesses WRV in Henan Province’s four primary watersheds. Temporal variations and spatial patterns of WRV from 2000 to 2020 are systematically examined through the standard deviational ellipse (SDE) and GeoDetector methods. The findings indicate that vulnerability within these river basins is shaped by the interactions among exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Moreover, exposure and sensitivity are found to be more influential than adaptive capacity. Although there are indications of future improvements in the system’s resilience against water resource vulnerability, the overarching scenario remains precarious, particularly within the Hai and Yellow River basins. Considering the diverse characteristics of the watershed, it is recommended that adaptive management strategies be implemented. This study enhances the understanding of WRV dynamics in Henan Province, thereby aiding more effective decision making in sustainable water resource management.