A novel modelling framework for real-time prediction of path travel times using both traffic and weather data

The problems of path travel time predictions have been studied over decades. Traditional approaches to this challenge have relied on different traffic data. However, in metropolitan cities with frequent rainfall, there is a need to consider the weather effects on real-time prediction of path travel times. Hence, this research integrates traffic data with weather data, including rainfall intensity data and weather forecast data to consider the temporal relationships between weather data and path travel times. The proposed modelling framework is evaluated with data from a major expressway and an urban arterial road in Hong Kong. Results unequivocally demonstrate that incorporating weather data significantly boosts prediction accuracy. This study also examines the impact of different frequencies on weather data, as well as weather forecast correctness, on prediction accuracy. Finally, the applicability of the proposed modelling framework has been verified without and with the input of ground truth on path travel times.