Spatial patterns of agricultural expansion determine impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage

Significance Deforestation is a major threat to biodiversity and many ecosystem services and is closely linked to agricultural expansion. Sustainability assessment of different agricultural products and policies requires an understanding of the impacts of land conversion resulting from shifts in demand or incentives for production. The prevailing approaches to estimating such impacts do not account for the spatial context of the transformation. This study shows how different patterns of agricultural expansion into forested landscapes can vastly reduce or exacerbate the total impact, suggesting that methods to measure sustainability should consider not only the total area but also where and how the landscape is converted.